Few days ago I shared in the previous post that I was making a small bet on Cindicator’s indicator about Stellar coin. It gave a 78% probability that XLM/BTC would trade above 0.000051 before February 20.
And it was wrong.
While the whole market is starting to recover, Bitcoin is taking the rising lead from the bad crash to $6000 to around $11000. This resulted in a drop of the majority of altcoins in term of BTC value, including XLM.
Bad thing is, obviously, I ‘lose money’ because it doesn’t play out as planned. But it’s OK as I’m more than well-prepared for this to happen and this is just a little fun experiment for me. I felt worse in losing 24 points in the application as I took part in the XLM prediction as well.
As you can see, I made a 74% prediction in that question as well. Couldn’t put all the blame on the indicator nonetheless right?
The good thing is I get to know more about Stellar by acquiring them. And I’m not going to sell just because it doesn’t meet the initial target, all I have to do is just converting this investment from short-term to medium-term. If I had to be more optimistic, this represents a longer opportunity to buy in with a lower price using Bitcoin.
Will I still believe in Cindicator?
Of course, it’s not like they have failed me 10 times in a row. In fact, they never guaranteed a 100% accuracy, nothing did.
几天前根据 Cindicator 买的 XLM 信号，结局是预测错误。XLM/.BTC 并没有在二月二十号之前越过 0.000051 BTC 。比特币从前一阵子的狂跌至 $6000 恢复到目前的 $11000，可谓十分强势。也难怪所有小货币们在和比特币的对比当中落下风了。
算了吧，反正这也是预料中事，几天的短期投机本来就是充满风险。不卖就不算亏损。
好处是，透过这次的投机行动我认识了 Stellar 这个很不错的项目，就算短期内脱不了手也大可转为长期持有。如果说还不够乐观，那就把这次机会当作是低价入手 XLM 的时机拉长了吧。
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