那天突发奇想假设了一个情况问问身边的人：有一个A货，现在市价3000元。今晚00：00时，A货拥有者可以免费得到相等数量的新B货，然而B货的价格却没人可以预知。而B货的出现也会让A货的价格动荡不已，可能往上飙也可能不停的掉。
在这样的前提下，有两种情况：
1）要是你已经拥有5个A货，你会如何做？
2）要是你一个A货都没有，而手上有可调用的15000元投资现金，你会如何做？
各位看官看到这里恐怕早就猜到了我对比的就是八月初的Bitcoin（A货）分裂Bitcoin Cash（B货）的情况了。
我拿这个问题问了些许身边对虚拟货币不认识的人，想看看‘局外人’对这一有趣的情况会做出怎样的选择。
情况（1）：
在持有5个A货的情况下，很多人都会选择卖掉二到三个A货，剩下的拿来等B货派发，然后看市场情况。走安全路线的话，这样的选择实在是无可厚非也很理智的。
情况（2）：
在不持有A货的情况下，出乎我意料的只有少数人愿意乘着这个机会入手A货以得到免费的B货。可能我的访问对象都刚好偏向保守派吧。
我个人在投资上是属于激进派的。总觉得还年轻嘛，就该勇于冒险，去争取最大的回报，大不了输光，还有的是时间东山再起。记得分裂之前我持有三个BTC吧，手上也还持有点现金，当时候也在犹豫要不要放掉一些。当时BTC的价格短期内是往上飙的，然后就有很多声音说这是因为很多人想得到免费的BTH而入场导致的，意味着分裂后多数投机者都会卖掉BTC以短暂获利，总而让BTC价格大跌。最后还是决定什么都不做，后来也证明这把赌对了。
当时侯有个朋友，就是处在情况（2）。手上持有可以购买2-3个BTC的现金，犹豫不决要不要进场，最终还是觉得分裂之后一定暴跌到时才捡便宜吧。结果大家也知道了，BTC一路高歌猛进，再也没有回去过那个价位。他可是天天心痛不已，毕竟BTC的溢价和免费BTH都像青春鸟儿一去不回来。
把这种难得的分裂情况应用在真实世界的货物市场上，又会有另一番新思考，实在是有趣。
当时候你是怎么做的呢？
Providing facts as below:
There is an object A with market price $3000. Tonight at 00:00, the owner of A will be given the equivalent amount of new object B. No one can predict the price of B and because the appearance of B, the price of A will fluctuate aggressively.
In the given facts, we have 2 questions:
1)If you already have 5 A, what will you do?
2)If you don’t have any A, but with a $15000 investment fund in hand, what will you do?
You might probably know I’m describing the BTC fork at the 1st August. I took this question to those who aren’t familiar with cryptocurrency and the result is kinda interesting.
1) Withhold of 5 A, most of them will sell off 2-3 A and use the rest to claim the free B. This decision is obvious and reasonable to me, reduce the risk yet maintain the position to get more reward.
2) Without holding any A, surprisingly only a few are willing to take this chance to buy some A to claim the free B. Maybe my access objects are conservative.
I’m a proud aggressive investor. I’m young and I’m willing to take higher risk for greater reward. Back in the time before the fork, I had 3 BTC and I decided to leave it be,luckily it turned out to be I won the bet.
A friend of mine was exactly in the condition (2). Holding some cash equal to 3 BTC, considering whether to buy the BTC before the fork or not. Finally, he bet that the price will sure crash since there was a huge rumor saying the recent surge of BTC was due to man buy-in for the ‘BTH lottery. He holds the cash through the fork and regretted huge time. The price spiked and never return to where it was before the fork.
Sometimes it is so fun to apply rare crypto phenomena in the real life. You may make a different decision if it wasn’t a cryptocurrency but some physical goods.
What was your decision during the fork?
image from news.bitcoin.com
This page is synchronized from the post: ‘激进派还是保守派 Conservative or Aggressive’